 Quantifying the
Business Opportunity in
Developing-country
Markets
Assessing the market
opportunity in
developing countries is
a daunting task.
Data are of poor quality
or do not exist. Vital
Wave Consulting
provides credible data
and actionable insights
to help technology
companies make strategic
decisions about these
growth markets.
Information and
communication technology
(ICT) companies are
being driven to
developing-country
markets by the need for
incremental, profitable
business expansion. One
major challenge of
realizing this growth is
in accurately
characterizing and
quantifying the
opportunity.
Business managers who
hope to introduce
technology solutions and
business models to
developing-country
markets must create
credible business cases
that accurately reflect
the opportunity in order
to secure internal
funding and support.
 Credibility,
however, is based on
sound data and in-depth
market knowledge.
One business unit in a
leading multinational IT
company is spearheading
a strategic effort to
penetrate the next
one-to-two billion
technology users. The
head of the business
unit had an ambitious
research agenda with
broad geographic scope
and precise segment and
solution parameters. To
truly size and
characterize the market
opportunity, they needed
a market model that
supported:
-
ROI analysis of the
company’s
emerging-market
activities
-
Reliable production
plan for the coming
year
-
Realistic and
effective
go-to-market plans
for specific
platforms and
segments
-
Trade-off decisions
about areas of focus
and specific
resource investments
The company sought the
assistance of Vital Wave
Consulting to create a
five-year market model
of the top 25
emerging-market
countries to forecast
incremental growth for
three specific market
segments.
Unlike traditional
research firms, Vital
Wave Consulting focuses
exclusively on
developing-country
markets. Most
readily-available market
data on developing
countries represents
only large enterprises
and the wealthy elite in
urban areas. Vital Wave
Consulting, however,
analyzes the whole
growth opportunity in
these markets including
mainstream populations,
small businesses, and
the public sector in
urban and rural
environments.
Quantifying and
characterizing these new
markets requires
innovative
methodologies,
non-traditional data
sources, and in-depth
understanding of the
dynamics of
developing-country
environments.
Based on its proprietary
data and modeling
methods, Vital Wave
Consulting developed a
customized tool for this
IT client that reflects
current and projected
market characteristics.
Users of the tool were
able to modify variable
data inputs enabling
reliable and fast
scenario planning and
ROI analysis in select
segments and
geographies. For
instance, the IT company
could input a lower
target price point and
see the potential impact
on the product’s sales
and revenue.
Vital Wave Consulting’s
market modeling tools
provide clients with an
assessment of the
available market, the
addressable market, and
a sales forecast. The
tools are sensitive to
the specific
characteristics of a
solution, the
go-to-market strategy,
available resources, and
geographic or segment
focus. The market models
are customizable and
feature a user-friendly
interface.
Together with
qualitative market
research and business
planning services, the
market modeling tool
enables clients to apply
a rigorous business
approach and deeper
understanding to new
emerging-market
opportunities. Vital
Wave Consulting provides
the necessary tools and
information to make
investment decisions
that maximize revenue
growth and reduce risks.
_____________________________________________________
New Methodologies
Data on emerging markets
is scarce and
unreliable, so analysts
must be able to judge
the quality of the data.
Finding, for instance,
the true rate of
electrical connectivity,
the number of villages,
or the number of schools
in a specific geography
requires experience and
systematic reality
checks.
When data is unreliable
or simply unavailable,
there must be processes
in place to create a
more realistic picture.
Vital Wave Consulting
routinely employs
techniques like
triangulation, the
identification and use
of proxies, and
multi-source validation
of key assumptions to
generate the most
realistic forecasts and
reliable estimates of
addressable markets.
____________________________________________________
New Sources
Vital Wave Consulting
synthesizes numerous
statistical reports,
databases and primary
research to provide
realistic and credible
information and data
that clients cannot
obtain from other
sources. The company’s
broad network of primary
and secondary sources
ensures full validation
and global coverage.
____________________________________________________
New Perspectives
Vital Wave Consulting
evaluates
characteristics that do
not typically factor
into mature-market
models. To truly measure
business opportunities
in developing countries,
the company includes
political stability,
literacy, government
impedance and other
factors in its analysis.
Vital Wave Consulting
respects the
confidentiality of its
clients. Company and
individual names have
been omitted from this
case study.
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